Alea iacta estne?

Really quick post. About “how do you make decisions?”

I do not make decisions. I consider pro and cons of ‘the situation’, weight them, dismantle them in little factor to which I’d assign a percentage weight and then decide, on a scale 0-10, how I feel about that factor. Sum all the number up and… voilá!

Quick, simple fool-proof example:

Action: eating 1000gr of ice cream.

Advantages from doing the action:

a. it tastes nice: 50%

b. it is refreshing: 20% (it’s winter…)

c. I like its texture: 30%

Disadvantages from doing the action:

a. SO many calories: 25% (honestly. It’s ice cream…!!)

b. It may be TOO cold: 35%

c. 1000gr might be too much for me to eat at once: 40%

Let’s see how important those factors are:

ADV:

a. 9 x 0.5

b. 1 x 0.2

c. 8 x 0.3

DISADV:

a. 7 x 0.25

b. 9 x 0.35

c. 8 x 0.4

So in the end it is:

I WILL eat the ice cream = 7.1/10

I WON’T eat the ice cream = 8.1/10

Oh. Okay.

 

It seems stupid, doesn’t it? BUT if you think about it, it is exactly what anyone does before deciding anything, just rationalised and mathematised.

Another good method would come from considering that “decision” means “to cut off from” (Latin, “de” + “caedo”), therefore if you have a lot of options, you proceed by simply excluding some. Of course, the downside of this method is that you have to have a lot of options to consider and the time to consider them all. And your decision is definitive. And what if you eliminated THAT option that could have been the best one? And you could get to the end of the procedure and not having a completely satisfying decision. And there is no math in this, just gut feelings, which makes me think it would never work for me. And anyway everyone knows that gut feelings are wrong for, statistically, 80% of the times [got it…?, no…? Okay.]. And you could use that other math procedure but just imagine how long and complex it would be, to break down all those options into small percentage categories…

and this is a bit daunting.

Cast the dices instead.

…so you’ll be able to yell “alea iacta est!!” in the end…

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